Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-12-14 9.000096 10.337691 11.778722 13.443281 15.309581 17.334003 19.692531
2025-12-21 6.624504 8.342038 10.339863 12.822237 15.809700 19.274194 23.579875
2025-12-28 5.801020 7.741833 10.110197 13.187887 17.053650 21.718283 27.739076
2026-01-04 5.105193 7.183553 9.832106 13.414520 18.087336 23.924573 31.709198
2026-01-11 4.454398 6.573854 9.381518 13.316055 18.620500 25.448657 34.813987
2026-01-18 3.912122 6.037172 8.955611 13.181009 19.051836 26.816990 37.739115
2026-01-25 3.507266 5.640325 8.668378 13.184557 19.632239 28.370000 40.938262
2026-02-01 3.193866 5.338467 8.478148 13.290813 20.334801 30.093626 44.417094
2026-02-08 2.873073 4.988327 8.179872 13.203920 20.735729 31.393215 47.339549
2026-02-15 2.586829 4.660406 7.881644 13.083491 21.061964 32.579471 50.127483
2026-02-22 2.380868 4.439808 7.726045 13.159098 21.668138 34.177000 53.550310
2026-03-01 2.258726 4.345830 7.759379 13.523131 22.719737 36.459055 58.047921
2026-03-08 2.035332 4.059339 7.463464 13.350598 22.943621 37.536947 60.841357
2026-03-15 1.763299 3.657771 6.942291 12.771283 22.486007 37.552291 62.027866
2026-03-22 1.678648 3.589843 6.981818 13.121754 23.531587 39.913216 66.871351
2026-03-29 1.582144 3.489216 6.954503 13.352437 24.386168 42.002289 71.363389
2026-04-05 1.446115 3.297177 6.747004 13.252581 24.677248 43.198701 74.486057
2026-04-12 1.319002 3.109118 6.530496 13.118731 24.896549 44.278306 77.449995
2026-04-19 1.221614 2.971628 6.396618 13.122038 25.346037 45.742629 81.074986
2026-04-26 1.145077 2.870039 6.322579 13.227936 25.975175 47.521158 85.265145
2026-05-03 1.053467 2.725665 6.152888 13.141373 26.252986 48.714718 88.523101
2026-05-10 0.966645 2.582265 5.973035 13.021453 26.459550 49.787642 91.606469
2026-05-17 0.906634 2.493758 5.897401 13.096743 27.022414 51.485827 95.789909